The Earth Summit in Rio in June
2012 will take stock of sustainable development priorities globally. The
Durban meeting in December 2011
has set some directions for appropriate responses to
climate change. And closer to
home, the Twelfth Five Year Plan, commencing in
April 2012, is setting out
India’s priorities for a sustainable and inclusive, lowercarbon
development
path.
·
India’s faster gross domestic product (GDP)
growth over the last two decades has been
unprecedented; but at the same time India’s
rankings in terms of the human development index
(HDI) as well as indices measuring environmental
sustainability
are yet to fully reflect this growth
Measuring India’s Environmental Performance
·
In a recent ranking of environmental
performance (EPI 2012), India was placed 122 out of 132 countries.
·
Its performance was better on protecting its
forests (rank 21) and fisheries (39), and on climate change (55).
·
Poorer ratings were given to air quality
(132), agriculture (126), and water resources (122). Like all such rating
exercises, this one too has significant data and methodological problems.
·
In
agriculture, India’s performance on two sub-components—banned pesticides and
protection—has been wrongly evaluated.
India has banned or restricted a dozen organic pesticides and its protection to
agriculture is negative.
·
The environmental
health indicator, with the largest weight, uses child mortality rates between ages 1 and 5; this exaggerates
differences. A broader life expectancy
at birth index would be less biased.
·
Three other adjustments—more appropriate country normalizations for biodiversity, energy, and
water—should be made. The cumulative impact might improve India’s overall
ranking closer to the middle of all countries.
·
The other methodological issue is how to separate environmental performance
from incomes. While ‘distance-to-targets’ methodology helps, this does not
fully correct theproblem: richer countries still tend to perform better
(because they can afford to) and economic development is still a critical
driver of sustainability.
·
Another
is an alarming increase in airborne respirable small particulate matter (PM) of
less than 2.5 microns. Delhi has seen recent PM 2.5 levels that surpass Beijing’s.
·
Increased private diesel transport, power
plant emissions, burning of agricultural residues, and sub-Himalayan winter
inversion are the culprits.
·
A MOEF study has identified a menu of
options, none of them easy: tougher regulations (e.g. ban on burning residues,
power plants), prices (diesel and private transport), and investments in public
transport, to address these problems.
·
State of the Environment Report by the Ministry
of Envionment and Forests (MOEF) clubs the issues under five key challenges
faced by India, which are
·
climate change, food security, water security,
energy security, and managing urbanization
·
India’s per capita energy consumption of 439 kg
of oil equivalent is far below the world average of 1688 kg (Planning
Commission report in 2006).
·
One is life expectancy, where India has achieved a decade’s gain,
which is a broad indicator of economic well-being with social justice.
·
SECON D India is one of the few developing countries where forest
cover has increased over the last 20 years and continues to increase, although
a slight dip is reported in the latest data for 2011.
·
A third summary indicator is gains in literacy among younger women, an
indicator of future generations’ well-being (Figure 12.1). 62 to 68 in
2010-2011 thT IS AN INCREASE OF 13%
·
, the success of its services sector has driven growth.
The economy transitioned from being mainly dependent on agriculture and
manufacturing to a services-oriented one over the 1990s. The share of this
sector in India’s GDP grew from approximately 38 per cent in 1980-81 to 57.7
per cent in 2010-11
·
Article 21 conferring the Right to Life has been
assigned the broadest interpretations by the judiciary to encompass the right
to a clean environment, right to livelihood, right to live with dignity, and a
number of other associated rights.
green national accounting
·
system, to more appropriately take into account
the environmental costs of development and reflect
the
depletion of natural resources in generating national income. Comprehensive
environmental
statistics
are being published since 1997 by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). It is
expected that
the
depletion of stocks of natural resources will be worked into the standard
national accounts to
estimate
a green GDP at the level of states and the country as a whole in about five
years.
·
Economic pricing of energy and other resources
will be a key to switching to a more
sustainable development path
The
recent Durban Decisions have included
steps towards post 2020 arrangements to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions without sacrificing the needs of developing countries and for the
setting up of a global Green Climate Fund (GCF) that promises stepped-up global
financing. The proof of developed country commitments on financial support will
be in their rapid mplementation of the
GCF.
Debate
Are Diesel Prices too Low in India?
·
Diesel is a key energy price. Diesel price
adjustments have lagged international prices in recent years, and
·
Budgetary subsidies have ballooned. At the
same time, such low prices and subsidies are providing incentives for misuse, shifts
to diesel use such as luxury sports utility vehicles (SUVs), escalating imports
in an energy-insecure country, and increased pollution loads.
·
Diesel is a heavy contributor to particulates
and black soot and to asthma, cancer, and heart disease.
·
On the other hand, political economy
arguments are that diesel is a widely used fuel for public transport, budgetary
subsidies
·
are offset by central and state value-added
tax (VAT), excise and sales taxes, and finally diesel prices in India are high relative
to incomes. Is there merit in these arguments? One way of testing for this
formally is to compare diesel prices in India with those prevailing in other
countries, adjusted for PPP incomes, as well as relative energy abundance.
Other things being equal, countries that export oil (such as the Middle Eastern
ones) or are relatively diversified, energy- abundant countries (such as Canada
and the United States) can afford to keep domestic prices lower than
energy-insecure countries (such as India).
·
·
The evidence shows that just such a predicted
relationship indeed holds. But even accounting for this,
·
diesel prices were already 20 per cent below
predicted levels for India in 2010; the divergence has since doubled as global oil
prices have surged 45 per cent (from US$ 80/barrel Brent prices in 2010 to US$
120 currently), while domestic price adjustments have not followed. Diesel
prices need a large adjustment now (as
China, for example, has recently undertaken), given subsidies, pollution and
public health costs. Charging high road and vehicle taxes is another option
(that Singapore uses).
Key Findings of IPCC AR4 2007 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
assessement report)
¨ Warming of the earth’s climate system is unequivocal.
¨ CO2 atmospheric concentration--280 ppm in 1750 rose to 379 ppm in
2005.
¨ Direct observations of changes in temperature, sea level, and snow
cover in the northern
hemisphere during 1961–90 indicate increased
temperatures, rise in the mean sea levels, and
decreasing snow cover.
¨ Global average sea levels rose by 1.8 mm/year over 1961–2003.
¨ Eleven of the twelve years—1995-2006—rank among the twelve warmest
years since 1850.
¨ Both the hemispheres have observed a decline in the mass of
mountain glaciers and snow
cover.
Precipitation has been found to be more variable, with increased frequency of
heat
waves, droughts, heavy precipitation events,
and floods.
¨ Projected changes in the climate indicate an increase in global
temperatures in the range of 1.8°C to 4.0°C over the twenty-first century and
sea level rise is projected to be between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by 2100.
SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
The
atmosphere carries out the critical function of maintaining life-sustaining
conditions on
earth.
The sun radiates solar energy on earth and a large part of this energy, about
one-third is radiated
back
into space, the balance being absorbed by the surface and atmosphere. GHGs like
carbon
dioxide
(CO2) and water vapour re-emit some of this heat to the earth’s surface. If
they did not perform
this
useful function, most of the heat energy would escape, leaving the earth cold
and unable to support
life.
In this manner the atmosphere creates a natural greenhouse effect which helps
sustain life on earth.
However,
ever since the Industrial Revolution began about 150 years ago, man-made
activities have
added
significant quantities of GHGs to the atmosphere. 12.11 Climate change is
primarily caused by the
building
up of GHGs in the atmosphere. GHGs which are responsible for global warming are
both short
and
long lived, with their residence time in the atmosphere varying from few hours,
weeks, months,
years
to several hundred years. Warming
potential of any GHG is reckoned with CO2 as the standard
and for
methane (CH4) it is roughly twenty one times and several thousand times for
fluorocarbons.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC),
·
the global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide
(N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed preindustrial levels.
·
The global increases in CO2 concentration are
primarily due to fossil fuel use and land use changes,
·
while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to
agriculture.
According
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
IPCC
(IPCC AR4 2007), atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increased from a
pre-industrial value of 278
parts
per million (ppm) to 379 ppm in 2005, and the average global temperature rose
by 0.74°C.
Projections
indicate that global warming will continue and accelerate.
Economics
that Follows the Science
The Vicious Circle of Environmental Degradation with
Poverty and Affluence
Box 12. 4: Inter- and Intra-generational Equity
Equity
has two dimensions – inter-generational and intragenerational.In the specific
context of climate change,
·
intergenerational refers to the spatial distribution of global GHG
emissions budgets, GHG emissions rights,
implicit costs and benefits, and impacts of climate change inflicted by each
generation on its successors, across generations.
·
Intragenerational equity relates to the
allocation of utilization of resources among members of the present generation.
·
Quite often, in climate change debates the
emphasis is on inter-generational equity. However, we cannot overlook
intra-generational equity. The stake of developing countries in growth and
poverty eradication cannot be questioned.
·
Developed countries, being responsible for
causing climate change, owing to their historical as well as current emissions
should take actions as committed, to stabilize and reduce their emissions of
GHGs and also provide financial and technological support to enable developing
countries in addressing the challenge of climate change.
·
The social discount rate is crucial for a cost-benefit analysis
reflecting society’s relative valuation on today’s well-being versus well-being
in the future.
·
Every effort for conservation must be carried out
early to protect our future generations by providing them with a better quality
of life including productive resources for the future.
·
Along with this we also have to safeguard our reasonable interests and
concerns as environmental issues cannot be delinked from our efforts to provide
the present generation with the basic necessities and a better quality of life.
Integrating
the Science and Economics
It follows from the earlier discussion that
there are difficult technical and conceptual policy
questions
to be tackled.
The
most important is to choose a stabilization level of GHG emissions and
time-frame for emission peaking, keeping in mind the principle of equity (in
access to global atmospheric resources) and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR).
Article
2 of the UNFCCC calls for stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at
levels and within a time frame that would prevent dangerous interference with
the climate system. The understanding on dangerous interference with the climate
change system ultimately is social, political, economic, and
technical
in nature.
GHG EMISSION TRENDS GLOBALLY
GHG
emissions have risen sharply since 1945. As per a working paper published by
the
·
World Resources Institute (World
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005, WRI),
·
total GHGs
were estimated at 44,153 million metric tons CO2 equivalents in 2005.
·
This is the most recent year for which comprehensive emissions data
are available for every major gas and sector across countries.
Total global GHG emissions grew by 12.7 per cent
between 2000 and 2005, an annual average of 2.4 per cent.
. CO2 was
the predominant gas (with long life exceeding 100-150 years), accounting for 77
per cent of world GHG emissions in 2005 followed by methane (15 per cent) and
nitrous oxide (7 per cent).
·
In 2005, North America accounted for 18 per cent
of world GHG emissions, China 16 per cent, and the EU 12 per cent. India’s
share stood at 4 per cent.Equally important are the figures for the cumulative
emissions which are responsible for the current rise in global temperature.
·
The World Bank database has CO2 emissions data
estimate up to the year 2008. As CO2 is the most predominant GHG, an analysis
of CO2 emissions across countries in absolute and per capita terms in 2008
compared to 1992 is worthwhile.
The
issue of climate change is now firmly on national and international agendas,
subject to scrutiny by public and media, and is even shaping the strategies of
a number of businesses.
·
Internationally the UNFCCC (Convention) was set
up in 1992 and entered into force in 1994.
This
was a crucial step towards putting in place the institutions and processes for
the world’s governments to take coordinated and effective action. As on date,
195 countries are Parties to the convention. The ultimate objective of the
Convention is to stabilize the concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system. Although global in scope, it differentiated the commitments/
responsibilities of Parties on the basis of their respective capabilities,
economic structures, resource capacities and on the basis of the principle of
‘equity’ which is at the core of the climate change debate. Hence, any
discussion on stabilization of the concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere
should be preceded by a paradigm for equitable access to global atmospheric
resources that determines the development space of nations. The Convention lays
down legally binding commitments for the developed countries, taking into
account their historical responsibilities. These commitments are
to be
implemented in the form of reduction of GHG
emissions
by the developed countries with reference
to 1990
levels and provision of support to developing
countries
in terms of finance and technology so as
to
enable them to take voluntary mitigation and
adaption
measures.
·
·
The Convention recognizes that
economic
and social development and poverty
eradication
are the ‘first and overriding priorities’ of
the
developing countries.
12.21
The
Convention laid the groundwork for
concerted
international action, which in 1997 led to
the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol containing a
legally binding quantitative time-bound target for
developed countries.
·
The Kyoto Protocol set a target for developed
countries (individually or jointly) to reduce overall emissions by an average
of 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the first commitment
period (2008-2012).
·
Recognizing that relying on domestic measures alone to meet the target could be
onerous,the Kyoto Protocol offers considerable flexibilitythrough three
mechanisms
·
: Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), and Emissions Trading (ET). Through
the CDM,industrialized countries can finance mitigation projects in developing
countries contributing to their sustainable development.
·
Credits
received from such projects can be used to meet commitments under the Kyoto
Protocol. Through JI, industrializedcountries acquire emissions credit by
financially supporting projects in other industrialized countries.
·
ET allows countries that expect their emissions
to be above target to buy unused quotas from other countries. All major
countries except the United States (US) have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Emission Analysis of Annex I Countries,
Non-Annex I Countries, and India
·
The UNFCCC differentiates countries into Annex I
and Non-Annex I. Though it does not explicitly identify developed countries as
Annex I and developing as Non-Annex I, broadly in the climate change literature
Annex I Parties means industrialized countries that have committed themselves
to reducing GHG emissions.
·
Non-Annex I Parties are developing countries as
well as Least Developing Countries (LDCs) which do not have any obligation to
reduce emissions. Under the Kyoto Protocol,
·
37 countries
committed themselves to a reduction in GHG emissions, namely carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
·
At the negotiations, all Annex I Parties
(including the United States) collectively agreed to reduce their greenhouse
gas emissions by 5.2 per cent on average for the period 2008-2012.
·
This reduction is relative to their annual
emissions compared to 1990 levels. Since the US has not
ratified the protocol, the collective emissions reduction of Annex I Kyoto
countries falls from 5.2 per cent to 4.2 per cent below the base year.
·
12.23 Figure 12.3 shows a comparison of average
CO2 emission levels (in per capita terms) between Annex I, Non-Annex I, and
India.
·
For the years 1990- 2008 we can see that
collectively Annex I Partieshad the highest average level of emissions at 10.2
CO2 metric tons per capita in 1990, reaching at 9.7 CO2 metric tons per capita
in 2008.
·
For Non- Annex I Parties the average emission
levels were around 2.8 CO2 metric tons per capita in 1990, which increased to
increasing to 3.7 CO2 metric tons per capita in 2008. For India, the emission
levels per capita have been one of the lowest ranging from 0.81 CO2 metric tons per capita in 1990 to 1.52 CO2 metric
tons per capita in 2008
·
The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
is coming to an end in 2012. It is a good time to take stock of the progress of
the Annex I countries in reaching their targets.
·
Each Annex I
Party has a specific emissions target, relative to its emissions of GHGs
in its base year 1990 (inscribed in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol).
·
The Annex B emissions target and the Party’s
emissions of GHGs in the base year determine the Party’s initial assigned
amount for the Kyoto Protocol’s five-year first commitment period (2008–2012).
The quantity of the initial assigned amount is denominated in individual units,
called Assigned Amount Units (AAUs),
·
Canada, which has a target reduction of
6 per cent, has actually increased emissions by 17 per cent in 2009, which
means a deviation of 23 per cent from the Kyoto Target.
·
1990-2009. Developing countries (Eg.
Brazil, China, India & Mexico) that have undertaken efforts for reasons other
than climate change have reduced their emissions growth over the past three
decades by approxmately 500 million tons
CO2 per year, that is more than the reductions required from Annex I countries
by the Kyoto Protocol.
A Look at Small Island Developing
Nations (SIDS), Least Developed Countries (LDCs), India, and Others
The
Durban negotiations also demonstrated these dynamics and pressures. SIDS and
LDCs are two country groups that are very proactive in the climate change
negotiations
·
SIDS consists of small islands and low lying
coastal countries that share similar sustainable development challenges related
to climate change.
·
The majority of SIDS countries are also members
of the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) and 12 are listed as LDCs as
well.
·
The 50 countries defined as LDCs by the United
Nations (UN) regularly work together in the UN system. They have become
increasingly active in the climate change process, usually working together to
defend their particular interests.
·
Often in the
negotiations, India’s position on its vulnerability has not received due
attention and coverage. India is highly
vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change with its long coast-line large
number of islands, dependence on primary sectors for livelihood, etc.
·
Since India along with SIDS and LDCs is
vulnerable to climate change impacts and is likely to suffer from it,
·
12.27 When we compare the per capita GDP of India
and SIDS against that of the world, collectively SIDS members have a better
showing with their GDP being closer to the world average. India’s per capita
GDP, on the other hand, is very low. Figures 12.4 and 12.5 clearly show that
India and the LDCs have had lower per capita GDP as well as smaller per capita
emissions than SIDS.
Current State of Negotiations
12.28
The Conference of Parties (COP), which is the supreme body of the Convention, meets annually and reviews the
implementation of the Convention.
·
During the COP 13 held at Bali, Indonesia, in
December 2007, a comprehensive process called the
Bali Action Plan (BAP) to enable full, effective, and sustained
implementation of the Convention through Long Term Cooperative Action, now, up
to, and beyond 2012 was launched.
·
The negotiations held at Cancún in December 2010
did result in a set of decisions that covered various areas of action:
mitigation, daptation, technology, and finance as outlined in the BAP.
·
However, the Cancún agreements were widely
perceived as a modest step forward and a reaffirmation of faith in the multilateral
process.
·
12.29 The recently held
Durban Climate Change Conference from 28 November to 10 December 2011 (COP
17) marks an important step forward in the climate change negotiations (Box
12.6).
·
The Durban
outcomes made significant contribution towards fulfilment of the Bali Road Map
as they established the second commitment period of
the Kyoto Protocol and operationalized some of the key Cancún agreements
related to Green Climate Fund (GCF),Technology
Mechanism (TM), and Adaptation Framework.
·
The Durban outcomes also opened a window for
discussions on the post 2020 arrangements for the global climate change regime
for which a Durban Platform has been launched.
·
Though India and other developing countries came
under tremendous pressure at Durban, India took lead in ensuring that the new
arrangements are firmly anchored in the Convention and are based on the
principles of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR) and ‘equity’.
·
The faith
that the Parties had reaffirmed in a consensus-based multilateral regime for
climate change deliberations in Cancún was reinforced in Durban. Unlike the Cancún agreements, which were adopted despite explicit
rejection by Bolivia,
·
the Durban outcomes were adopted unanimously. Durban has
reestablished the primacy of the UNFCCC negotiations as the multilateral forum
for reaching decisions on climate change-related issues.
KEY OUTCOME
·
The most significant achievement of the
Durban Conference was to establish a second commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol, which will begin on January 1, 2013 and end
either on December 2017 or December 2020.
·
The quantified emission limitation and
reduction objectives (QELROs) for developed country Kyoto Protocol Parties will
be determined during 2012.
·
Durban also made significant progress in operationalization of
Cancún agreements related to GCF and the Adaptation Framework.
·
It was decided to
confer legal personality and legal capacity to
GCF and that the Fund will function under the guidance of COP.
·
It was also decided to expeditiously
operationalize the Fund for which Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the
UNFCCC Secretariat have been asked to set up an interim Secretariat to support
the GCF Board
·
Significant progress was made towards operationalization of the
Technology Mechanism and its components viz. Climate Technology Centre and
Network (CTCN) and Technology Executive Committee (TEC), established at Cancun.
·
The transparency arrangements agreed in Cancún were elaborated in
Durban and the reporting guidelines for developed countries
viz. Biennial Reports (BRs) and the developing
countries viz. Biennial Update Reports (BURs) were adopted.
·
It was ensured that the reporting and
Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable (MRV) obligations for the developing countries
are not more onerous than the developed country parties.
·
A significant outcome in Durban was to launch a Durban Platform to discuss the post 2020 arrangements
for global climate change regime. It was decided that the post 2020
arrangements would be finalized by 2015 and implemented from 2020.
·
India played a crucial role in
ensuring that the new arrangements are not limited to either a Protocol or a legal instrument but also include an option of ‘an agreed
outcome with a legal force under the
Convention’. Thus it was ensured that the outcome of negotiations to
finalize the post 2020 arrangements is firmly rooted in the Convention and all
its established principles including CBDR
and Equity apply.
·
A web-based registry was also agreed upon to
be set up under the management of the UNFCCC Secretariat to serve as a platform for the developing countries to
upload their Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
Actions (NAMAs) for seeking international support or recognition of
achievement of voluntary mitigation goals.
·
Progress was made in Durban on issues relating to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation and Sustainable
Management of Forests (REDD+) with
an agreement on guidance on systems for providing information
·
about how safeguards are being addressed and
respected and there was also agreement on modalities for forest reference emission
levels and forest reference levels.
Critical Issues in the Negotiations
·
issues relating to the Bali Road Map, several
critical issues have remained unresolved. The issues relating to equity, trade
and technology–related intellectual property rights (IPRs) are significant in
this context and their early resolution is important .
·
the
principle of equity needs to be properly articulated in the negotiations so as to
fully protect the interests of developing countries. The post 2020 arrangements
to be evolved under the Durban Platform have to be anchored in the principles
of equity and CBDR.
·
The UNFCCC
provides that the countries should promote open and supportive international trading
regime while taking actions to ddress climate change and should not take any
arbitrary actions. This issue is gaining importance in view of the current
global tendencies to erect protectionists’ barriers and use measures aimed at
advancing and protecting trade interests in the name of climate change.
Proposed sectoral measures like
inclusion of civil aviation emissions in its emission trading scheme by
European Union (EU) imposed unilaterally fall in such category. The
multilateral framework for addressing climate change does not allow such unilateral
and Sectoral actions at the global level unless the
principle of CBDR is squarely met. In the ensuing negotiations, it is
important to ensure that trade issues are not mixed with environmental issues
and to prohibit unilateral measures to address climate change taken in disregard
of the principles of the UNFCCC.
·
12.33 BAP recognizes that development and transfer
of climate friendly technologies is critical to enhancing developing country
actions. Hence,BAP urges countries to take urgent actions to“accelerate
deployment, diffusion and transfer of affordable environmental technologies”.
While a Technology Mechanism and Networks of Climate Technology Centers have
been set up under theCancun decisions, the critical issues
relating to transfer of technologies and their IPRs have not yet been addressed.
The institutional interventions agreed so far will at best help build capacity
for deployment of existing technologies. They will not help in making
technologies available on an affordable basis and facilitating their faster
uptake. In the absence of a facilitative IPRs regime for such technologies, the
objective of advancing nationally appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions
at the scale and speed warranted by the Convention will not be achievable. The
negotiations in future have to address this issue effectively and evolve an appropriate
model for facilitating the development and access to such technologies.
\
INDIA AND CLIMATE CHANGE
India
and GHGs
Although India ranks among top five countries
in terms of GHG emissions, its per capita emissions are much lower than those
of the developed countries even if historical emissions are excluded.
·
Its high level of emissions is due to its large
population, geographical size, and economy.
·
The most recent data available for India come
from the assessment carried out by the Indian
Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) in May 2010.
·
The key results of the assessment are that total
net GHG emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.71 million tons of CO2
equivalent (eq.), of which CO2 emissions were 1221.76 million tons, CH4-20.56
million tons, and N2O-0.24 million tons.
·
In 1994, the total net GHG emissions for India
were 1228.54 million tons of CO2 eq. This represents a compounded annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 2.9 per cent during the period
1994 to 2007
·
GHG emissions from the energy -58, industry 22, agriculture, and waste-17 sectors in 2007 constituted 58 per cent, 22
per cent, 17 per cent, and per cent of net CO2 eq. emissions
respectively.
·
India’s per capita CO2 eq. emissions including land use,land use change, and
forestry (LULUCF) were 1.5 tons per capita in 2007.
·
. Various studies indicate that the key sectors in
India such as the agriculture, water, natural ecosystem, biodiversity, and
health are vulnerable to climate change.
·
The INCCA report warns of impacts
such as
sea-level rise, increase in cyclonic intensity,
reduced
crop yield in rain-fed crops, stress on
livestock,
reduction in milk productivity, increased
flooding,
and spread of malaria.
·
These changes are
likely
to increase the pressure on Indian agriculture,
in
addition to existing stresses of yield stagnation,
land
use, and competition for land, water and other
resources.
·
Any uncertainty in agriculture can
considerably
affect the food systems and thus
increase
the vulnerability of a large section of the
resource-poor
population. This calls for urgency of
action
in reducing vulnerability to adverse impacts
of
climate change and enhancing adaptive
capacity
through sector-specific interventions and
efforts.
·
12.36 The food and nutritional security of India
currently depends to a great extent on the
production
of wheat and rice which together constitute
around
75 per cent of total food grain production. Simulation
models
suggest that in the absence of adaptation
and
fertilizer benefits, a 1°C increase in
temperature
alone could lead to a 6 million tonnes drop in
wheat
production.
·
Production of milk, which is increasingly
becoming
an important item in the food basket, may
also be
adversely affected by the increased heat
stress
associated with global climate change to
dairy
animals. Reduced water availability, owing to
glacier
retreat and decreased rainfall, and a growing
population
will increase water stress. India’s forests
are
likely to experience a shift in forest type,
adversely
impacting associated biodiversity and
regional
climate dynamics as well as livelihoods
based
on forest products.
·
Health is also likely to be
adversely
affected by climate change. Heat stress,
vector-borne
diseases, water contamination are
some of
the projected health impacts of climate
change.
For example, similar to other tropical
countries,
India is predicted to have increased
susceptibility to vector-borne diseases such as
malaria which is also projected to move to higher
latitudes and altitudes.
India’s Voluntary Actions
12.37
·
India has already taken a number of actions on
voluntary basis with own resources in pursuance
of a
sustainable development strategy. As per India’s
GHG
Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate
Modelling
Studies, a report published in 2009,
·
India’s per capita GHG emissions in 2030-31 would
be between 2.77 tons and 5.00 tons of CO2 eq.
·
Four of the five studies estimated that even in
2031, India’s per capita GHG emissions would stay under 4 tons of CO2 eq. which
is lower than the global per capita emissions of
4.22 tons of CO2 eq. in 2005.
·
This means that even two decades from now,
India’s per capita GHG emissions would be well below the global average of 25
years earlier.
·
·
·
12.38 Important measures taken by India are as
follows:
(i)
India has adopted the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008
which has both mitigation and adaptation measures. The eight National Missions which
form the core of the NAPCC represent
multi-prolonged, long-term, and integrated strategies for achieving key goals
in the
context of climate change. Adaptation is the focus of the NAPCC. At the same time,
Missions on Solar Energy and Energy Efficiency
are geared to mitigation. Objectives in brief and cost estimates are
given
in the later sections (see Table 12.5).
(ii)
India has announced a domestic goal of reducing the emission intensity of its
GDP by 20-25 per cent of the 2005 level by 2020.
·
This will be achieved through a multi-sector low
carbon development strategy. It is intended that lower carbon sustainable growth
be a central element of our Twelfth Five Year Plan.
(iii)
Apart from the NAPCC, all the states have also been asked to prepare
state-level action plans. These plans are envisioned as
extensions
of the NAPCC at various levels of governance, aligned with the eightNational
Missions. Some states like Delhi and Gujarat and some Himalayan states have
already taken the lead and been proactive in addressing climate change. Delhi launched a climate change action plan
for 2009-2012 formulated on the lines of the NAPCC.
12.39
The major policies and actions for climate
change
mitigation and adaptation cut across different
sectors
and areas of the economy. The initiatives in
some of
the major areas are as follows.
i) Energy Efficiency
The National Mission for Enhanced Energy
Efficiency
(NMEEE) is the key focus for government action
for
energy efficiency. The NMEEE is divided into four
components:
(a) Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT),
a
scheme for trading in energy efficiency certificates
that
will cover about 700 industrial units and achieve
a
saving of almost 17,000 MWs of energy by 2017.
This scheme is mandatory for all large industrial
units and facilities in thermal power, aluminum,
cement, fertilizers, chlor-alkali, steel, paper
and
pulp, and textiles, (b) Energy Efficiency Financing
platform,
(c) Market Transformation for Energy
Efficiency,
(d) Framework for Energy Efficient
Economic Development. The NMEEE, by 2014-15,
is likely to achieve about 23 million tonnes
oilequivalent
of fuel savings in coal, gas, and petroleum
products
(ii) Power Plants
For
reducing emission intensity, 60 per cent of coalbased
capacity
addition in the Twelfth Plan and 100
per
cent in the Thirteenth Plan shall be done by
deploying super critical technology. Ultra super
critical power plants operate at higher
efficiency.
(iii) Renewable Energy
The
Electricity Act 2003 together with the National
Electricity
Policy 2005 (NEP) and the Tariff Policy
(TP)
mandate promotion of electricity generation
from
renewable sources. The Electricity Act and
these
policies envisage regulatory interventions for
promotion
of renewable energy sources. The
initiatives
of the Central Electricity Regulatory
Commission
(CERC) range from determination of
preferential
tariff for renewable energy and creating
a
facilitative framework of grid connectivity through
the
Indian Electricity Grid Code to developing
market-based
instruments like Renewable Energy
Certificate
(REC). The REC mechanism is seen as
a major
initiative towards promoting renewable
energy
and encouraging competition in this
segment.
It addresses the twin objectives of
harnessing
renewable energy sources in areas with
high
potential and compliance with Renewable
Purchase
Obligation (RPO) by resource-deficit
states.
This important framework was formally
launched
in November 2010, heralding a new era in
the
development of green energy in India.
(iv) Nuclear Energy
India recognizes
the importance of nuclear energy
as a
sustainable energy source. In this regard a
three-stage
nuclear power programme has also been
chalked
out. India’s present nuclear installed
capacity is 4780 MW and there are plans to install
nuclear generation capacity of 20000 MW by 2020.
(v) Transport
India
has taken substantial initiatives to make the
transport
sector less emission intensive. One of the
major
initiatives has been upgradation of
vehicular
emission norms such as Bharat Stage II, Bharat
Stage III and Bharat Stage IV. The commercial
manufacture
of battery-operated vehicles has
begun
in
India with a view to promoting low/ no carbon
emitting
vehicles. Also in Delhi there has been a
large-scale
switchover from petrol and diesel to CNG,
with
over 50,000 vehicles already converted. In
addition
to this Integrated Transport Policy (2001)
promotes
the use of ethanol-blended petrol and biodiesel.
The
National Urban Transport Policy
emphasizes
the development and usage of extensive
public
transport facilities (including non-motorized
modes)
over personal vehicles.
(vi) Agriculture and Forestry
One of
the major policy initiatives under this head is
India’s
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture.
Apart
from this, there are also programmes for crop
improvement
and drought proofing. India is among
the few
countries where forest cover has actually
increased
over the past two decades. It has taken
strong
measures to conserve forests. India has
launched
an ambitious Green India Mission to
increase
the quality and quantity of forest cover in
10
million ha of land. Also an incentive-based
additional
special grant of US$ 1.2 billion had been
announced
by the central government to all states
for
sustainable forestry management. Other policies
and
programmes in the forestry sector include the
National
Forest Policy (1988), Participatory Forest
Management/Joint
Forest Management Programme,
National
Afforestation Programme, National Forestry
Action
Programme, and National Watershed
Development
Project for Rainfed Areas.
(vii) Marine and Coastal Environment
Ensuring
stability in the coastal environment in India
becomes
imperative considering its densely
inhabited,
long coastline of more than 7500 km.
Some of
the major initiatives taken in this area are
Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction Systems
(COMAPS),Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal
Zone (LOICZ),Integrated Coastal and Marine Area
Management (ICMAM), and Society of Integrated
Coastal Management (SICOM).
(viii) Initiatives for Enhancing Knowledge and
Scientific Findings
Apart
from the National Mission on Strategic
Knowledge
for Climate Change, India has
established
the INCCA which will carry out scientific
studies
of various aspects of climate change. The
INCCA
has recently carried out a 4x4 assessment
of
climate change in India covering four major sectors
in four
ecological regions of the country and an
updated
inventory of the GHG emissions for the year
2007.
(ix) Enhancing Adaptive Capacity
India’s
strategy for enhancing its adaptive capacity
to
climate variability is reflected in many of its social
and
economic development programmes. For
developing
countries like India, adaptation ultimately
boils
down to assisting the vulnerable population
during
exigencies and empowering them to build
their
lives and cope with uncertainties in the long
run.
Several of India’s social-sector schemes, with
their
emphasis on livelihood security and welfare of
the
weaker sections, aim to do just that. India
implements
a series of central sector and centrally
sponsored
schemes under different ministries/
departments
aimed at achieving social and
economic
development. Many of these schemes
contain
elements (objectives and targets) that are
decidedly
geared to adaptation. In other words, there
is
substantial adaptation orientation in many of the
sectoral
schemes currently under operation. An
exercise
has been carried out to measure the
expenditure
on adaptation-related programmes with
critical
adaptation components: (a) crop
improvement
and research, (b) poverty alleviation
and
livelihood preservation, (c) drought proofing and
flood
control, (d) risk financing, (e) forest
conservation,
(f) health, and (g) rural education and
infrastructure.
It has been found that India’s
expenditure
on these adaptation-oriented schemes
has
increased from 1.45 per cent of GDP in 2000-
01 to
2.82 per cent during 2009-10 This is a fairly
impressive
level of spending and is an obvious
reflection
of the multiplicity of economic and social
welfare
programmes under implementation in India.
CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE
UNFCCC.
The Convention squarely puts the
responsibility
for the provision of financial support
on the
developed countries taking into account their
contribution
to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere
Some important articles on finance in the UNFCCC
Article
4.3: “The developed country Parties and other developed Parties included in
Annex II shall provide new and
additional
financial resources to meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing
country Parties in complying with their
obligations
under Article 12, paragraph 1. They shall also provide such financial resources,
including for the transfer of
technology,
needed by the developing country Parties to meet the agreed full incremental
costs of implementing measures
that
are covered by paragraph 1 of this Article and that are agreed between a
developing country Party and the international
entity
or entities referred to in Article 11, in accordance with that Article. The
impliementation of these commitments shall
take
into account the need for adequacy and predictability in the flow of funds and
the importance of appropriate burden
sharing
among the developed country Parties.’’
Article
4.5: “The developed country Parties and other developed Parties included in
Annex II shall take all practicable steps
to
promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to,
environmentally sound technologies and
know-how
to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to
implement the provisions of the
Convention.
In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the development
and enhancement of endogenous
capacities
and technologies of developing country Parties.”
Article
4.7. “The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement
their commitments under the
Convention
will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of
their commitments under the
Convention
related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will take fully
into account that economic and social
development
and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the
developing country Parties.”
Article
11.1.”A mechanism for the provision of financial resources on a grant or
concessional basis, including for the transfer
of
technology, is hereby defined. It shall function under the guidance of and be
accountable to the Conference of the Parties,
which
shall decide on its policies, programme priorities and eligibility criteria
related to this Convention. Its operation shall
be
entrusted to one or more existing international entities.”
Domestic Sources of Finance
12.48
·
Currently, India is mostly utilizing and relying
on
domestic sources of finance, which are
budgetary
allocations for various sectors and the
National
Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) fed by a cess
on coal
at ` 50 per ton introduced in
2010.
·
The NCEF will finance innovative projects in
clean energy
technologies
and harness renewable energy sources
to
reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
·
From the Fund, allocation of ` 200 crore has already been
proposed
for environmental remediation programmes
and
another ` 200 crore for
the Green India Mission.
·
The cess will also help pay for schemes to
protect
and
regenerate forests and clean up polluted sites.
·
It is estimated that an amount of ` 10,000 crore will
be generated
by 2015 from the clean energy cess
on
coal.
·
Other fiscal incentives by the government
include
exemption of some parts of hybrid vehicles
from
customs and imposition of a concessional 5
per
cent rate of excise duty to increase their domestic
production,
lower customs duty on light emitting
diodes
(LEDs) and solar lanterns, and subsidies to
renewable
energy projects.
Objectives and Financial Outlays under the Eight Missions:
Sl. Name of the mission/ Salient features and status of the
National Missions
No. nodal agency
1 National Solar Mission Seeks to deploy
20,000 MW of solar electricity capacity in the country by 2020.
The
first phase (2010-12) is currently underway during which 1000 MW is
planned
to be installed.
The
total financial outlay during Phase 1 is estimated as ` 4337 crore. The
requirement
for Phase 2 will be assessed after review of implementation of
Phase
1.
2 National Mission for Enhanced Creates
new institutional mechanisms to enable the development and Energy
Efficiency
strengthening of energy efficiency markets. Various programmes
have
been initiated, including the PAT mechanism to promote efficiency in large
industries,
and the Super-Efficient Equipment Programme (SEEP) to accelerate
the
introduction of deployment of super-efficient appliances.
The total
requirement projected under the Mission between 2010 and 2012 is
`
425.35 crore. This is intended to attract
private-sector investment in the
energy
efficiency market.
3 National Mission on Promotes the
introduction of sustainable transport, energy-efficient buildings,
Sustainable
Habitat and sustainable waste management in cities.
The
total cost projected in the Mission Document is `
1000 crore.
4 National Water Mission Promotes the
integrated management of water resources and increase of
Mission
water use efficiency by 20 per cent
As per
the Mission Document, the total estimated additional fund required for
implementing
the Mission is ` 89,101crore
during the Eleventh and the Twelfth
Five
Year Plan periods. This includes expenditure on schemes implemented
through
the State Plans and Central Plan.
5
National Mission for Sustaining Establishes an observational and monitoring
network for the Himalayan the
Himalayan
Ecosystem environment so as to assess climate impacts on the
Himalayan
glaciers and promote community-based management of these
ecosystems
For
implementing the Mission activities, a total fund of ` 195 crore is required in
the
Eleventh Plan period. A total budget outlay of `
1100 crore would be required
in the
Twelfth Plan period for initiating some broad Mission activities.
6
National Mission for Green India
Seeks to afforest an additional 10 million hectare of forest lands, wastelands
and
community lands.
An
expenditure of ` 46,000 crore
is projected under the Mission for coverage
of 10
million ha over the next 10 years.
7 National Mission for Sustainable Focuses
on enhancing productivity and resilience of agriculture so as to reduce
vulnerability
to extremes of weather, long dry spells, flooding, and variable
moisture
availability.
The
proposed adaptation and mitigation activities under the Mission require an
additional
budgetary support of ` 1,08,000 crore
out of which ` 91,800 crore
will be
required during the Twelfth Plan period.
8 National Mission on Strategic Identifies
challenges arising from climate change, promotes the development
Knowledge
on Climate Change and diffusion of knowledge on responses to
these
challenges in the areas of health, demography, migration, and livelihood
of
coastal communities.
Additional
funds of ` 150 crore are
required in the Eleventh Plan period for
implementing
the Mission activities. Provision of ` 1050 crore is required under
the
Twelfth plan period for achieving Mission/sub-Mission programme initiatives
Box 12.8 : Funds established under the multilateral climate
change regime
Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF): This fund is managed by the GEF and finances projects relating to:
adaptation;
technology
transfer and capacity building; energy, transport, industry, agriculture,
forestry, and waste management; and
economic
diversification.
Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF): The Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) supports a work
programme to
assist
LDC’s in the preparation and implementation of National Adaptation Programmes
of Action (NAPA’s). As of
December
2011, LDCF had approved some US $217 million for projects and mobilized more
than US $919 million in cofinancing.
Adaptation Fund (AF): This fund
was established under the Kyoto Protocol to finance concrete adaptation
projects and
programmes
in developing country Parties to the Protocol. The Adaptation Fund is financed
from the 2 per cent share of
proceeds
on the clean development mechanism project activities and other sources of
funding. The Adaptation Fund is
supervised
and managed by the Adaptation Fund Board (AFB). The most important
characteristics of this Fund are that
Parties
have direct access which has led to increased country ownership over adaptation
projects.
Green Climate Fund (GCF): At
COP 17 held in Durban, South Africa, the COP established a Green Climate Fund
(GCF)
under
the Convention to support projects, programmes, policies and other activities
in developing nations. The Fund will
start
operating from 2013 where developed nations will provide the fund. Long term
finance of $100 billion by 2020 has been
decided
by the nations and the GCF is expected to manage significant part of this. GCF
is expected to be one of the most
important
sources of international finance. The important distinction of GCF is that it
has an independent legal status and
personality
and nationally designated authorities have a paramount role to play. This has
been achieved after many rounds
Box 12.10 : India and CDM
As
on 31 December 2011, 776 out of a total of 3797 projects
registered
by the CDM Executive Board are from India,
which
so far is the second highest for any country in the
world.
China leads with 1790 registered
projects and Brazil
has
200 projects registered. Also, as on 31 December 2011,
the
National CDM Authority (NCDMA) has accorded host
country
approval to 2160 projects facilitating an investment
of
more than ` 364,034
crore. These projects are in the sectors
of
energy efficiency, fuel switching, industrial processes,
municipal
solid waste, renewable energy, and forestry. If
all
these projects get registered by the CDM Executive
Board,
they have the potential of generating 711
million
certified emission reductions (CERs) by the year
2012.
At a conservative price of US$ 10 per CER, it adds
up
to an overall inflow of approximately US$ 7.11 billion in
the
country by the year 2012 if all the projects get registered.
As
on date CERs issued to Indian projects are 124 million.
Delhi
Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC): World’s
first rail
network to be registered under the CDM
scheme:
The DMRC is the world’s first rail network to
be registered
at the UNFCCC under the CDM scheme. The DMRC
has
registered two projects till date, namely: a)
Emission
Reduction by Low GHG Emitting Vehicles (also called
Regenerative Braking project) registered on
29.12.2007 and
b) Metro Delhi, India (also called Modal
Shift Project)
registered
on 30 June 2011. It is expected that around an
average
41,160 CERs per annum for next 10 years will be
generated
from Regenerative Braking Project and around
an
average of 5, 29,043 CERs per annum for next 7 years
will
be generated from the Modal Shift project.
CHALLENGES AND OUTLOOK
12.55
Sustainable development is a difficult
balancing
act in countries with low incomes. Society
has to
simultaneously accomplish three things with
trade-offs:
improve economic well-being with social
justice
for the present generation, yet manage with
more
restrained use of land, air, forest, energy, and
water
resources, and protect future generations. The
choices
are more difficult in developing countries
because
they affect people’s livelihoods. Such a
‘stewardship’
to succeed therefore needs to respond
to
people’s needs, share information on choices and
costs,
and ensure participation and ownership.
12.56
India has done well on all such counts of
stewardship
over the past decades. Economic
reforms
since the 1980s have accelerated growth
and
incomes. Social well-being has improved
broadly,
as measured by gains in life expectancy.
India
has stepped up protection of its natural
environment
such as forests. Its particular
development
path has relied on fast-growing
services–a
low emissions-intensity path with
accelerated
literacy and education promising a better
future.
While India could have done even better, much
has
been accomplished. The reasons behind such
progress
are undoubtedly strong institutional
underpinnings:
democratic participation,
constitutional
protection of social justice, and a
steady
accretion of environmental laws and
regulations,
multiple actors, markets, and expanding
government
programmes and policies.
12.57
India will nevertheless need to save and
spend
even more to meet its objectives of economic
well-being
with environmental sustainability, while
continuing
to reduce its carbon intensity of growth.
This is
possible and doable. New institutional
challenges
are being posed by more intense
pressures
on land and agriculture, rapid
urbanization,
the quality of public services, public
environmental
health, and deteriorating air and water.
Differential
prices, incentives, regulations, and taxes
will
need to be supportive, especially on energy, to
help
shift to a more efficient and equitable
development
path. New non-carbon, renewable
energy
sources and technologies will be crucial,
mostly
led by the private sector. Social justice will
require
stepped-up public spending on energy
access
and other elements of the eight National
Missions.
12.58 Turning to the global context, India has
voluntarily endeavoured to reduce the energy
intensity of its growth path by 2020. It is well on the
way to
accomplishing that goal. However, the global
community
needs to act on its commitment to equity
and
fair burden sharing: reducing the massive gaps
in per
capita emissions between rich and poor
countries
and enhanced financing for massive
adaptation
and mitigation efforts in developing
countries---so
that developed countries do not end
using
up all the carbon space at the cost of the
developing
world. The recent Durban Decisions have
included
a second round of country commitments
to
reduce GHGs and established a global GCF.
Rapid
implementation would help dispel the
300 Economic Survey 2011-12
widespread
perception of wavering global
commitment
and wavering public financial support
in
North America, Japan and Europe, made worse
by a
difficult economic environment and threats of
unilateral
trade measures such as aviation and
maritime
taxes.
12.59
Though the Durban Conference has led to
several
positive outcomes, there are still some areas
of
concern in which further work will be needed to
safeguard
the interests of developing countries in
future
climate change deliberations.Some of the
challenges
and deliverables from India’s point of view
are:
conversion of the targets of the second
12.61
To sum up:
.
·
As a responsible and enlightened member of the
international
community, India showed flexibility
along
with other developing countries towards the
success
of the Durban Conference.
·
At Durban, the
world
recognized India for its spirited defence of the
interests
of developing countries.India ensured that
the objectives
of social and economic development
and
poverty eradication will not be compromised in
any
way, whether upto 2020 or in the post 2020
arrangements
that are to be negotiated and finalized
by
2015.
