The report “Climate Change and India: A 4X4 Assessment A sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s”, prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA). This report provides an assessment of impact of climate change in 2030s on four key sectors of the Indian economy, namely Agriculture, Water, Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity
and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India,namely the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats,the Coastal Area and the North-East Region. It is for the fi rst time that such a comprehensive, long term assessment has been undertaken based on rigorous scientifi c analysis. It is also for the fi rst time that and assessment has been made for the 2030s (all previous assessments were for the 2070s and beyond). As I have said in the past, no country in the world is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India. Whether it is our long coastline of 7000kms, our Himalayas with their vast
glaciers, our almost 70million hectares of forests (which incidentally house almost all of our key mineral reserves) – we are exposed to climate change on multiple fronts. Rigorous science based assessments
are therefore critical in designing our adaptation strategies.
INCCA is a network-based programme that brings together over 120
Foreword institutions and over 220 scientists from across the country to undertake scientifi c assessments of different aspects of climate change assessment. As I have stated earlier, we need to make the “3 M’s” – Measure, Model and Monitor – the foundation of our decision-making and we need to build indigenous capacity for this. We should not be dependent on external studies to tell us for example about the impact of climate change on our glaciers, on our monsoons, and indeed even on sea level rise. Indeed, recent evidence suggests the “scientifi c consensus” on many of these is debatable.
We need to build our own independent and credible research capacity on these issues. This report is a step in this direction. In particular, the knowledge and understanding of impacts as deduced from the Global
Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models are not adequate to assess the impacts and implications for India. A need has been felt for comprehensive national as well as state level impact assessment. This assessment is an attempt to use PRECIS (providing climate investigation studies) based on HadRM (Hadley Regional climate Model) to generate climate change scenario for 2030s
and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India,namely the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats,the Coastal Area and the North-East Region. It is for the fi rst time that such a comprehensive, long term assessment has been undertaken based on rigorous scientifi c analysis. It is also for the fi rst time that and assessment has been made for the 2030s (all previous assessments were for the 2070s and beyond). As I have said in the past, no country in the world is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India. Whether it is our long coastline of 7000kms, our Himalayas with their vast
glaciers, our almost 70million hectares of forests (which incidentally house almost all of our key mineral reserves) – we are exposed to climate change on multiple fronts. Rigorous science based assessments
are therefore critical in designing our adaptation strategies.
INCCA is a network-based programme that brings together over 120
Foreword institutions and over 220 scientists from across the country to undertake scientifi c assessments of different aspects of climate change assessment. As I have stated earlier, we need to make the “3 M’s” – Measure, Model and Monitor – the foundation of our decision-making and we need to build indigenous capacity for this. We should not be dependent on external studies to tell us for example about the impact of climate change on our glaciers, on our monsoons, and indeed even on sea level rise. Indeed, recent evidence suggests the “scientifi c consensus” on many of these is debatable.
We need to build our own independent and credible research capacity on these issues. This report is a step in this direction. In particular, the knowledge and understanding of impacts as deduced from the Global
Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models are not adequate to assess the impacts and implications for India. A need has been felt for comprehensive national as well as state level impact assessment. This assessment is an attempt to use PRECIS (providing climate investigation studies) based on HadRM (Hadley Regional climate Model) to generate climate change scenario for 2030s
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